Supplies slowing or falling – but still some way to go towards balance
Output in the EU continues to grow at moderate level (+1.5% Jan-Sept), mainly due to strong uplifts in mid-tier countries such as Ireland (+9.9%), the Netherlands (+4.6% for the period, and +11.4% for October alone), Poland (+2.2%) and the UK (+1.5%).
Growth in the bigger countries (Germany and France) is modest or negative. In fact week ending 15th November was down 0.5% in France (though 2.5% above the last 5-year average). Cow culls in France (suckler and dairy) are up over 10% compared to Sept 14.
In Germany, production is growing by 1.5% for the week ending 9th Nov compared to the same week last year, but down on the previous week. The overall picture in Germany for the year to September suggests production back by 0.5%.
Most of the other countries’ production is static or down. With the exception of Ireland, other EU member states that are growing production are doing this more slowly than in earlier months. SMP and butter production have benefited most from the increased output, with WMP falling back dramatically.