National Australia Bank (NAB) expects rising Chinese powder imports will lead recovery
National Australia Bank, flagging a forecast from the US Department of Agriculture that Chinese whole milk powder imports will rise by 14.3% for the year 2016, forecast better conditions this year than in a “tumultuous” 2015, when “lacklustre demand” and ample supplies sent “prices on a rollercoaster”.
This year, “we see a slow recovery in global prices, with moderately higher Chinese demand, but continued strength in global supply”, NAB said.
Today’s GDT auction: slightly down
Despite this refreshing take on the 2016 outlook, the GDT lived up to expectations created by NZX futures in recent day, and fell modestly by 1.4%, the second small fall in 2016.
Tonnages are well back from the same time last year (nearly 10,000 t less), but were broadly as expected. WMP results are as good as neutral at -0.5%, and WMP is always the most traded product through the GDT auction.