2019 a year of relative dairy price stability – but with the uncertainty of Brexit
EU volumes edging up
While the USDEC graph on the right indicates continued slower global milk output growth as far as January, more recent production trends are showing the early stages of a pick-up.
This, combined with the uncertainty of the Brexit situation (see more on Brexit below), is influencing markets towards greater caution.
EU milk deliveries for 2018 were up 0.9% only, and December was actually 1% down on December 2017. The vagaries of weather during the year put pressure on most of the main milk producing countries, with fodder shortages and rising feed costs moderating supplies.
Dutch milk deliveries continue to be impacted by the herd restrictions related to phosphates implemented since last year. January output was back over 5%, while production for the calendar year was down 2.9%.
French milk deliveries to the 9th week of the year (last week of February) were up 0.3% compared to the same week last year. This is the first time that production exceeds the same week in the prior year since last August. However, it leaves national output still well below the 5-year average, as has been the trend for practically all of 2018 (see graph right).
The French milk output for the full calendar year 2018 were 0.2% down on 2017.