World cereal production prospects trimmed and stocks heading sharply lower in 2018/19
Latest indications from the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) continue to point to a reduced global cereal output in 2018. This will lead to negative prospects for the cereal supply outlook for the forthcoming 2018/19 marketing season.
According to the International Grains Council latest grain market report, the total grains supply and demand outlook for 2018/19 has tightened. A 12m t cut for world grains production is due to adverse weather conditions in the EU and Russia and the EU, which has damaged prospects for barley, wheat and maize. Although global consumption is reduced, projected carryover stocks are down by 12m t m/m, with the year-on-year decline now seen at 54m, including a drop of 34m in the major exporters.
World Markets Overview June 2018
A marginal decline in world total grains production is predicted in 2018/19 with supplies are down 1% due to tighter opening stocks.
Global total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production in 2017/18 was 2% short of the previous year’s record, but heavy stocks at the start of the season saw overall supply rise for the fifth year in succession. However, given sustained consumption growth set to be at a new high, the first world stocks contraction since 2012/13 is predicted. Trade (Jul/Jun) will be the highest ever, including record shipments of maize and barley.