Economic study on the cumulative effects of trade agreements on the EU agricultural sector
The European Commission (Joint Research Centre working together with DG AGRI) has carried out an analysis of the potential cumulative impact of ongoing and upcoming trade negotiations on the EU agricultural sector, announced by Commissioner Hogan at the Agriculture Council meeting of 15 February 2016. The report was presented to the Agriculture Council on the day it was published (15 November 2016), see also Press Release.
As the precise details of many of these potential agreements have not yet been negotiated, the report is based on models simulating reciprocal liberalisation of import tariffs between the EU and the relevant trading partners – but not taking account of potential easing of non-tariff measures, such as sanitary & phytosanitary issues.
The study anticipates significant gains for the EU dairy and pig meat sectors – two sectors which have struggled in recent years and which are now showing signs of recovery. On the other hand, the study shows vulnerabilities for beef and rice, both in terms of trade effects and a decline in producer prices. However, the simulations used do not take account of the systematic use of limited tariff rate quotas (TRQs) used by the EU to protect vulnerable sectors in trade deals.
Possible gains for important products having significant export potential – like fruit and vegetables, wine, olive oil and processed foods in general (accounting for 70% of EU agri-food export value) – could not be quantified in detail nor the gains of improved protection for Geographical Indications.