IFA Grain Committee News
The National Grain Chairman and grain policy executive have attended both meetings of the National Fodder and Food Security meeting in Moorepark, Co. Cork.
The National Grain Committee met on March 10th to discuss solutions for raising native grain production. The main points were as follows:
- Straw incorporation scheme must remain for 2022
- Protein Aid Scheme funding must be increased in 2022
- Tillage farmers should collaborate with livestock farmers to produce extra grain where possible.
Spot prices are still heavily influenced by the ongoing war in Ukraine, but daily volatility is somewhat lower now than at the initial outbreak.
Spot grain prices are continually supported by Ukrainian export bans and Russia curbing exports to European markets (AHDB).
November 22 dried wheat prices continue to be very firm due to Black sea supply concerns.
Glanbia green prices have risen by +€15/t week on week for feed wheat and barley (22nd March)
Paris rapeseed continues to break new market highs due to significant concerns over global oilseed supply this year.
|Spot Price¹ €/t||% Change vs previous month||Glanbia Sept 2022 Green (€/t)||Nov/Dec 2022 Dried (€/t) ¹|
|IRL Feed Wheat||400-420||+25%||288||330|
|IRL Feed Barley||400||+25%||278||320|
|Oilseed Rape Paris²||980||+27%||–||745-755|
|Maize ex. Port||395||+21%||N/A||325|
² Euronext correct as of 25-3-22
Global Grain Supply and Demand
Drought in the wheat producing southern US states is adding further concern for global wheat supply for 2022.
Soyabean supply from South America was lowered again for March by the USDA due to drought and lower yields in this region.
The area sown in Ukraine to spring grain crops could fall up to 39% this year according to analysts (Reuters Ag news).
Cocareal estimates EU 27 + UK grain production at 305.6 million tonnes for 2022 which is 0.6% lower than in 2021.
Planting progress in Brazil for the second maize crop is ahead of progress, weather developments here will be a key influence on global maize supply in the short term.
|WASDE Global Stocks + Supply 21/22³||Million Metric Tonnes||Monthly Change (%)|
|World wheat supply||778.52||+0.2%|
|Wheat ending stocks||281.5||+1.1%|
|World Corn Supply||1206.14||0%|
|World Soybean Meal||247.55||-1.6%|
Crude oil prices fell to a 2 week low of $106.9/barrel on March 14th but daily volatility remains high and prices have trended higher in the period since.
European gas prices continue to show extreme daily volatility prices dropped below €100/mwh on Monday 21st of March but have since risen to €118/mwh this week
|Spot Price||% Change vs Feb ‘22||% Change year on year|
|Dutch TTF Gas Futures €/MwH||117||N/A||435%|
|Brent Crude Oil ($/barrel)||116.39||N/A||68%|