| Commodity | Spot/Nearby | Nov/Dec 25 |
| IRL Feed Wheat¹ | 220 | 220-225 |
| IRL Feed Barley¹ | 208-210 | 210-215 |
| Paris MATIF Wheat² | – | 207.75 |
| Paris Oilseed Rape | – | 485.25 |
| Maize ex. Port | 215 | 215 |
² Source: Euronext correct as of 24.07.25 9am
Market Prices and News
European wheat prices firmed slightly in the week of July 14th – July 18th with MATIF Nov-25 closing on the Friday at €211.50/t up €2.25/t this was in response to technical factors such as currency movements and improved global demand.
Prices have slipped back €2-3/t in trading so far this week however.
The pace of harvest in France (71% completed by mid-July) and the USA is adding pressure to the bearish market sentiment but prices are possibly not falling as quickly as they could given the rapid progress made.
In contrast, the pace of the Black Sea wheat harvest remains disrupted and behind schedule for the time of year. Russian wheat exports are now forecast to decline slightly due to poor yields in the southern oblasts.
US maize prospects continue to highlight the potential for bumper yields, with corn rated at 74% good on July 20th the highest at this time since 2016. Weather in this period is critical for the determinants of corn yield so markets will remain responsive to any changes in the outlook.
Sep-25 corn futures in Chicago have held broadly around the $4/bushel mark which is approximately €135/t. Prices for Dec-25 futures are closer to €145/t converted.
For native grain price sentiment remains broadly similar this week. Some merchants have paid on-account prices of €170/t for green feed barley. Prices of €193-€200/t have been offered for lots of winter barley below 15% moisture ex. farm.
For dried prices, wheat for Nov-25 is slightly firmer at €220-225/t, spot dry prices are lower at €220/t with barley around €210/t. Maize ex. port is €215/t for November.
French malting barley prices have dropped again this week due to harvest pressure. FOB Creil prices for July-25 are reported at €214/t down from €217/t last week.
Oilseed rape has seen less volatility this week compared with the past month, Paris Nov-25 futures have held so far this week in the €481-485/t range, this would leave ex. farm prices at approximately €450-455/t here.
Global Grain Supply and Demand
The International Grains Council has kept its global wheat production number at 808MMT.
International demand for wheat is showing tentative signs of recovery, with big importers such as Tunisa, Thailand, Taiwan and Algeria all issuing and securing tenders (AHDB).
Closer to home, the EU Commission released its MARS report on July 21st . For winter cereal crops yields are reported as above average, with soft wheat average yields estimated at 6.1t/ha and winter barley at 5.5t/ha, this is 0.3 and 0.7t/ha above the five-year average respectively.
Summer crops such as maize and sunflowers are not faring so well according to the report, EU maize yields have been revised downwards by 4% to 7.2t/ha, with sunflowers cut by 8% to 1.94t/ha.
Argus media released results from its survey of the French soft wheat crop with average yields estimated at 7.44t/ha producing a crop of 33.4MMT which is a significant improvement over the very poor crop in 2024 but below the 2017-2023 average of 34.96MMT.
Russian wheat production is forecast to be slightly lower in the 2025/26 year at 84 MMT with a total harvest of 130.3MMT down from 131.8MMT (IKAR).
