| Commodity | €/t April/May 2025 | €/t Nov/Dec 25 Dried |
| IRL Feed Wheat¹ | 245 | 240-245 |
| IRL Feed Barley¹ | 230-235 | 230 |
| Paris MATIF Wheat² | 222.50 | 230.50 |
| Paris Oilseed Rape | 475.75 | 464.50 |
| Maize ex. Port | 245 | 230-235 |
² Source: Euronext correct as of 12.03.25 10am
Market Prices and News
MATIF wheat futures have dropped back sharply in the past two weeks. In the period February 28th to March 7th May-25 futures lost €7.25/t to close at €221.75/t on the week. Markets have steadied in trading this week with the same contract trading at €222.50/t at the time of writing. New crop MATIF futures for Nov-25 are slightly higher at €230.50/t
Losses are being driven by an improved weather outlook for wheat crops in the Black Sea and maize in south America.
In the US, the USDA has forecast that the maize area will increase by 3.8% as farmers there are set to prefer corn over soybeans. The overall wheat area is expected to increase by 2%. This is expected to increase ending stocks which in turn pressurises prices.
Political and global trade factors are significantly affecting prices at present. This includes the Trump administration proposing tariffs with Mexico and Canada.
This is in turn affecting currency movements, the euro has strengthened versus the US dollar at €1/$1.08, the highest in four months (Agritel).
Recent native grain price offers include Tirlan on February 27th who offered €200/t for green barley, €210/t for green wheat. Dried wheat and barley quotes remain largely unchanged this week at €240-245/t for wheat.
MATIF rapeseed has seen sharp declines in recent weeks. Nearby May-25 futures have dropped €37/t since Friday February 28th to close at €495.75/t on Friday 7th. Further losses have been recorded in trading this week with closure at €480/t on Tuesday evening. This primarily due to falling Chicago soybean prices which have been pressurised by Chinese retaliatory tariffs on agricultural products from the US. Winnipeg futures for rapeseed have also dropped sharply following news of China applying a 100% tariff to Canadian canola meal and oil imports.
Global Grain Supply and Demand
March WASDE Report Highlights:
Wheat ending stocks are expected to rise to 260.08MMT following increases in production in Australia (2.1MMT), Argentina (0.9MMT) and Ukraine (0.5MMT).
Global maize ending stocks were cut further to 288.9MMT, this is compared with 314MMT at this point in 2024.
Strategie Grains has forecast the EU rapeseed production will rebound in 2025 to 19MMT which is a 13% increase on 2024/25 production.
French cereal crop conditions are rated at 74% good for winter wheat and 70% for winter barley which is an improving outlook. At this point in 2024, wheat was rated 68% good with winter barley at 73% good.
