| Commodity | Nov/Dec €/t |
| IRL Feed Wheat¹ | 220-225 |
| IRL Feed Barley¹ | 212-220 |
| Paris MATIF Wheat² | 210.75 |
| Paris Rapeseed | 518.25 |
| FOB Creil (July 26) | 211 |
² Source: Euronext correct as of 08.06 .26 12pm
Market Prices and News
Last week global grain prices closed down overall with variable price movements throughout the week. Paris Sep-26 futures dropped below the symbolic €200/t mark. Markets are reacting to the commencement of harvest in the northern hemisphere, good crop conditions and very adequate global production and stock supplies.
Geopolitical and economic factors were also present in the background. A ceasefire in the Middle East has pushed crude oil prices back to $80-83/barrel, while the dollar was stronger relative to the euro and the ECB pushed up interest rates by 0.25% on Friday.
Winter barley harvest has commenced in France according to local reports there, as always in the early stages, it is difficult to judge yields and quality just yet. Extreme heat is forecast for next week across France which could lead to swift harvest progress.
The French Ag Ministry has reported that maize area is expected to be down 18.8% for 2026, a drop of 15% was expected by the market and this has supported EU maize prices in trading during mid-week. Wheat prices have also risen above €200/t to approximately €203-204/t.
In the US, last week corn prices hit new contract lows for both crop 2025 and 2026 futures, with $4.15/bu (approx. €140/t) reached for July 26 (old crop) and under $4.40-4.45/bu (approx. €149-€150/t) on Dec-26 futures. This is in response to USDA production figures (see below) and favourable weather/crop ratings across the Midwest. 68% of the crop is rated good, but the market will remain very receptive to news in this area for the next month or so which is key for maize crops.
Progress in the US wheat harvest remains very strong. Despite the very poor crop, (details below) it appears this is well priced into Chicago futures with prices around $6.30-6.40/bu for September 2026 (€199-200/t) positions. These prices are significantly lower than recent weeks and mark some of the lowest prices since February 2026.
Native grain prices are back this week. Dried wheat for Nov-26 is €220-225/t depending on the day. Barley is reported to be seeing harvest price pressure with prices at €212-220/t. Imported maize is €220-223/t. No green price offers were issued at the time of writing this week.
For malting barley, FOB Creil prices for July-26, as reported by Agritel, have come under pressure in recent weeks, prices have reached as low as €206/t but are €211/t on Wednesday 17th.
Rapeseed prices have dropped back this week, at the time of writing prices are approximately €518/t by comparison on Friday last week, Paris MATIF for Nov-26 closed at €527.25/t. Lower crude oil prices and increase in the EU planted area to 6.5million hectares are driving this. Overall sentiment remains reasonably firm, and prices remain above the symbolic €500/t mark with nearby Aug-26 harvest positions at €510/t.
Global Grain Supply and Demand
USDA released its June WASDE report last week.
Global wheat supplies are forecast upwards for 2026/27 at 820 million tonnes with ending stocks projected to be 275.4 million tonnes. The increase is largely due to higher production in Russia, Turkey and Ukraine. USDA estimates Russia will produce an 88MMT wheat crop, lower than local analysts in that country who pitch closer to 91MMT (IKAR). Ukrainian wheat production is put at 23.5MMT.
Total American wheat production is put at 42.01MMT down from 54MMT last year.
USDA forecast EU wheat production at 136MMT.
US maize outlook remains unchanged on the month with the expectation of a large 406.29MMT 2026/27 crop with 54.48MMT stock carryover. For global maize, ending stocks are heavier than wheat with the figure increased to 312MMT this month.
