| Commodity | September (Green) | Nov/Dec €/t |
| IRL Feed Wheat¹ | 205-208 | 238-243 |
| IRL Feed Barley¹ | 193-198 | 225-230 |
| Paris MATIF Wheat² | – | 233.75 |
| Paris Rapeseed | – | 531 |
| FOB Creil (July 26) | 235 | – |
² Source: Euronext correct as of 28.07.26 10am
Market Prices and News
Global grain prices have experienced significant volatility in the second half of July, with geopolitical developments adding a significant war risk premium back onto prices. The resumption of tensions in Black Sea, with Ukraine disrupting flows through the Sea of Azov which is responsible for 25% of Russian exports caused prices to spike sharply. Russia has responded with attacks on key Ukrainian port infrastructure which saw brief suspensions in navigation. MATIF Dec-26 wheat futures spiked to as high as €247/t, the highest since May 2024, however, prices dropped backed back to €229-232/t on Friday, July 24th upon news of Ukraine seeking to protect vessels leaving ports such as Odessa.
Outside of geopolitics, the European heatwave is providing some degree of support to prices particularly for EU maize, which is now rated just 38% good in key producer France. Euronext maize prices have reached €250-255/t in recent days.
However, there has been no fundamental change in global grain supply forecasts in key producers such as Brazil or the USA which limits the potential for a sustained rally according to the AHDB. US prices have seen some support owing to hot weather conditions in the western corn belt but remain between $4.55-4.75/bushel (approx €157-164/t) for Sep/Dec-26 futures.
US maize crops are rated at 63% good, which is 4 points lower than the previous week according to USDA, this decline is sharper than anticipated.
Native grain prices have increased in response to the above developments. Dried wheat prices for Nov-26 are put at €238-243/t this week, with dried barley at €225-230/t. Imported maize for the same period is put at €238-240/t. For green grain, Tirlan offered €198/t for barley and €208/t for feed wheat on Friday July 24th.
Spot malting barley prices have increased on the FOB Creil market, prices climbed to €241 on July 17th and increased to €251/t on July 23rd, however, at the time of writing on July 28th, prices are at €235/t.
Rapeseed prices increased sharply in response to developments in the Iranian war and the resulting increase in crude oil prices to around $100/barrel. Prices for Nov-26 futures climbed from €514/t on 3rd July to as high as €563/t on July 24th. However, prices have since cooled off with the fall back in oil prices, at the time of writing with Nov-26 trading at €531/t. Aug-26 futures have fallen significantly to €485-490/t as the contract expiry nears.
Global Grain Supply and Demand
The EU MARS crop monitoring report has revised yields lower this month as result of the prolonged heatwave in Europe.
- Soft wheat: 5.88 t/ha against 6 t/ha expected last month
- Barley: 5.02 t/ha against 5.09 t/ha expected last month
- Corn for grain: 6.93 t/ha against 7.38 t/ha expected last month
In Russia, analyst IKAR has forecast total grain production to reach 139MMT, with wheat making up 90MMT of this.
