| Commodity | €/t May 2025 | €/t Nov/Dec 25 Dried |
| IRL Feed Wheat¹ | 233-235 | 230-235 |
| IRL Feed Barley¹ | – | 220-225 |
| Paris MATIF Wheat² | 212.25 | 221.75 |
| Paris Oilseed Rape | 545.50 | 480 |
| Maize ex. Port¹ | 235 | 225-230 |
² Source: Euronext correct as of 16.04.25 2pm
Market Prices and News
European MATIF wheat futures have been pressurised during trading over the past two weeks. Nearby futures for May-25 reached a contract low of €209/t on Tuesday April 15th.
Key factors pressuring EU wheat prices are (i) the spike in the euro/dollar exchange rate which is now at €1 = $1.13, this is the highest since 2022, which makes US imports more competitive than EU supplies and (ii) a lack of export opportunities for EU wheat from larger third country importers (Agritel).
Chicago maize prices increased strongly to the week ending April 11th with the May-25 position gaining $11.81/t to reach $193/t. on the back of low global maize ending stocks. New crop futures will be responsive to weather conditions over the coming weeks as planting begins across the Midwestern States.
Native spot prices for dried wheat are €5-7/t lower than the opening days of April with prices reported to IFA at €233-235/t. Prices for November 2025 have dropped by €5/t with quotes at €230-€235/t depending on the day.
Spot prices for imported maize have dropped by €10/t to €235/t this week, new crop futures for November 2025 are quoted at €225-230/t.
For green grain, recent offers from Dairygold and Tirlan put barley at €190/t and wheat at €200/t.
In oilseed rape markets, MATIF new crop futures for Nov-25 remain relatively firm, trading in a range of €475-482/t. Closer to home, ex. farm oilseed rape prices for harvest 2025 are reported at €445-450/t.
Nearby May-25 Paris oilseed rape futures have seen high volatility in recent weeks due to tight supplies in Europe and technical considerations as the old crop contract expiry date gets closer (Agritel). Chicago soybean futures have risen over the past week following the suspension of trade tariffs for 90 days by the Trump Administration, however, the escalation in tensions with China – its largest soybean market – means the outlook remains bearish.
Global Grain Supply and Demand
The USDA published its April WASDE report on Wednesday April 9th, key highlights include:
World ending stocks for maize declined further month on month to 287.654MMT
Wheat ending stocks increased marginally to 260.7MMT
Maize production in Brazil and Argentina for the 2024/25 year was unchanged this month by the USDA at 126MMT and 50MMT respectively
Strategie Grains have forecast that EU-27 soft wheat production in 2025/26 will hit 128.1MMT, a 13% increase on 2024/25 production.
The French Agricultural Ministry has released estimates for 2025 crop areas: wheat area is reported as 4.63 million hectares which is up 1.1% on the 5-year average: winter barley 1.224 million hectares, down 2.6%. Spring barley estimates have seen a more significant drop (-10.7%) relative to the 5-year average to 520,000ha.
Wheat conditions in the USA have declined in recent weeks due to drier conditions in key states. Winter wheat was rated 47% good by the USDA up to April 13th, down from 55% at this stage last year.
