Grain Market Update 29th April
|Spot Price €/T 1||% Change vs Previous Week||Glanbia September 2022 Green€/T||Nov/Dec 2022 Dried €/T 1|
|IRL Feed Wheat||420-425||-1%||320||365-370|
|IRL Feed Barley||415-420||-3%||310||355-360|
|Oilseed Rape Paris2||1000||0%||–||856|
|Maize Ex. Port||375||0%||N/A||355|
² Source: Euronext correct as of 29-04-22
Futures markets have firmed again this week following small declines as last week progressed, poor US crop condition and the war in Ukraine continue to provide support to markets.
Glanbia offered €320 and €310/t green for feed wheat and barley this week which is an increase of €3/t on last week.
FOB Creil malting barley for week 3 settled at €410/t, average to date is now €400.66.
Oilseed rape prices continue to strengthen weekly and new crop contracts continue to break record highs, this is on the back of restricted palm oil exports from SE Asia and also smaller crop plantings in Canada.
Grain Committee & Policy News
The National Grain Chairman and Grain Policy Executive attended a meeting with DAFM on the Nitrates Action Programme this week. The need for flexibility on mandatory stubble cultivation during wet harvest weather was stressed. 6m buffer zones for late harvested crops will be required on continuous blue line watercourses on OSI Maps.
Confirmation of the details on all measures expected of tillage farmers under the Nitrates Action Programme will be finalised by the nitrates expert review group by the end of June 2022, DAFM has confirmed.
The EU Commission has responded to Ireland’s CAP 2023-2027 strategic plan, the continuation of the 3-crop rule and existing crop diversification measures were not received with open arms by the Commission, the IFA grain committee will be monitoring this very closely.
Cereal seed sales are forecast to be up by 5% under the Tillage Incentive Scheme, but early indications from industry sources suggest maize plantings will show a larger jump.
Global Grain Supply and Demand
Global maize production is said to fall by 13MMT in 22/23 according to the International Grains Council.
Maize planting progress in the key Midwest States of Iowa and Illinois remains the slowest since 2013 (Karen Braun, Thomson Reuters).
Canadian planting intentions were published on April 26th rapeseed plantings are expected to be 7% lower but overall wheat area will be up 7% (Statistics Canada). This will add further pressure to a tight global oilseed supply situation.
Australian wheat production in 2022 is forecast at 29MMT down from recent record production years of 33MMT+ in 2020 and 2021 (USDA).
EU Mars crop monitoring centre reports favourable weather conditions across Europe in general but drought in some southern European countries is a concern.
|Spot Price||% Change vs Last Week||% Change year on year|
|Dutch TTF Gas Futures €/MwH||104.95||+7%||70%|
|Brent Crude Oil ($/barrel)||106||+3%||169%|
Dutch TTF gas future prices dropped to under €100/mwh on April 25th but news that Russia is to stop supplies into Poland and Bulgaria has increased prices by 7% this week.