| Commodity | Nov/Dec €/t |
| IRL Feed Wheat¹ | 260-265 |
| IRL Feed Barley¹ | 245-250 |
| Maize ex. Port | 255 |
| Paris MATIF Wheat² | 246.50 |
| Paris Rapeseed | 496.50 |
² Source: Euronext correct as of 20.10.26 1pm
Market Prices and News
European grain prices closed marginally up last week. MATIF Dec-26 closed at €243.75/t on Friday October 16th – up € 1.75/t on the week.
Geopolitical tensions in the Black Sea and Middle East remain a significant supporter of grain prices in Europe with prices volatile, wheat approached €250/t during trading mid-week but did not hold at this level.
Prices in the US fell last, Chicago maize and wheat futures for Dec-26 dropped by 1.6 and 1.2% respectively. This was driven by improved weather conditions across the US for harvesting maize and planting of winter wheat. Harvest progress in the US was reported as 44% completed for maize, 64% completed for soybeans by USDA on October 19th , progress for soybeans is in line with 5-year averages but maize is below 52% 5-year average at this date.
French maize prices increased significantly last week, as a result of the very poor crop. Prices for Nov-26 reached as high as €305/t before closing at €292.50/t on Friday. The French maize harvest was 92% complete on October 12th, which compares with a 5-year average of 46% on the same date. The French Ministry of Agriculture expects total maize to come into 7.3MMT down 48% YOY. Other grains such as wheat were reported to be down 5.6% (31.49MMT) with barley down 11% (10.59MMT).
Native dried grain prices have increased in the past week, wheat for December is trading between €260-265/t depending on the day. Barley is at €245-250/t and imported maize is at €255/t.
Rapeseed prices remain firm with the exception of the Nov-26 contract on MATIF. Nov-26 has dropped below €500/t for the time in six months with trader positions being offloaded as the contract expires on October 30th. Low water levels on the Rhine in particular are also reported to be hampering movement according to Agritel.
Old crop oilseed rape futures for Feb-27 and new crop futures for Aug-27 are significantly higher than Nov-26 closing at €546.50/t and €532/t respectively at the time of writing. This is supported by sustained higher oil prices, with Brent crude reaching a high of $109.86/t on Friday October 16th – the highest since the 19th of May. Oil prices are closer to $100/barrel at the time of writing (Tuesday 20th October).
Global Grain Supply and Demand
The International Grains Council published its October estimates on Friday last week. Key points include.
Global grain production was revised upwards by 7MMT to 2,427MMT tonnes, this month with higher maize production forecast, however, the total is 68MMT lower year-on-year. This decline includes 40MMT of maize, 25MMT wheat but barley is 4MMt higher.
In contrast to coarse grains, soybeans production is expected to increase by 2% to a record 439MMT, up 8MMT year-on-year, this is due to record US and Brazilian output. Consumption is anticipated to reach 446MMT which is reducing carryover stocks.
