Grain Market Update: 1st September
Market News & Prices
MATIF Dec 22 wheat prices have strengthened week on week (+3.0%) as a result of rising maize prices and also on news of the Ukrainian counter offensive in the Kherson oblast. Daily volatility remains high as a result of continued Black Sea shipments.
Paris rapeseed futures (Nov 22) continue to show high daily volatility, prices dropped by €18.75/t on Tuesday but have recovered +€15.50/t on Wednesday 31st August.
FOB Creil malting barley for Boortmalt suppliers settled last week at €346/t, an increase of €8/t on last week, the rolling average heading into this week was €408.10/t.
Glanbia offered €293/t for green wheat and €283/t for green barley this week.
|Commodity||Nov/Dec 2022 Dried €/T|
|IRL Feed Wheat¹||345-350|
|IRL Feed Barley¹||335-340|
|Paris MATIF Wheat²||323.25|
|Paris Oilseed Rape²||617.75|
Global Grain Supply & Demand
Figures from the Ukrainian agriculture ministry have stated grain exports could rebound to 6-6.5 million tonnes in October. 1.5 million tonnes of grain have been exported from Ukraine since the grain corridor deal was struck on July 22nd.
Statistics Canada has estimated wheat production will strongly rebound to 34.6 million tonnes up 55% on 2021. Oilseed rape production is expected to hit 19.5 million tonnes up 42% on 2021.
Brazilian statistics agency CONAB has forecast the 2022/23 soybean crop at 150.36 million tonnes following a 3.54% increase in the planted area. The total corn crop is now forecast at 125.5 million tonnes.
EU Commission forecasts for the European maize crop now stand at 59.3 million tonnes down 10% on the 65.8 million tonnes estimated in July.
Harvest Update from Grain Committee Members
The national cereal harvest is now completed in Leinster and Munster with only spring beans remaining. Further north in counties such as Donegal, spring barley is 50% cut with yields described as good.
Spring oat crops have yielded between 2.6-3.3t/ac which is broadly in line with grower expectations. KPH values are reported as good.
Spring wheat crops are generally reported to have yielded between 3-4t/ac with more crops in the 3-3.5t/ac range.
Spring beans are now being harvested in the south, south midlands and south east of the country, yields are described as low to moderate and range from 1.5-2.5t/ac, but many crops are reported as still being unripe.