Market Prices and News
Global grain prices remained largely unchanged last week (August 21st – 25th), markets were supported by hot weather in USA which could impact final yield potential.
Further attacks on grain infrastructure occurred in Ukraine last week but market moves remained largely unreactive to such news.
However, wheat markets have seen declines in trading this week due to competitive Russian export supplies, MATIF Sep-23 closed on Wednesday August 30th at €227.25/t. November futures are generally trading €8-9/t higher than this.
Dried wheat for November is back to €235-240/t this week, down €5-10/t from prices earlier in the month.
Native green grain price quotes are very thin on the ground with no offers circulated by the larger buyers in recent weeks.
MATIF Rapeseed prices have seen declines this week, markets largely reversed gains from last week. Nov-23 closed at €465/t on Wednesday evening, down €6.50/t week on week. USDA soybean crop ratings were better than the market expected on Monday.
FOB Creil closed on Wednesday last week at €310/t, bringing the average to €282.95/t base price for Boortmalt suppliers.
|Commodity||Nov/Dec 2023 Dried €/T¹|
|IRL Feed Wheat¹||235-240|
|IRL Feed Barley¹||225|
|Paris MATIF Wheat²||235.75|
|Paris Oilseed Rape²||462.50|
|Maize ex. Port||235-240|
² Source: Euronext correct as of 12.30pm 31-08-23
Global Grain Supply and Demand
The Pro Farmer tour of the key Midwestern maize and soybean states estimated maize yield to be 172bu/ac, 2% lower than the most recent USDA estimates.
Analysts SovEcon have forecast the Russian crop to rise from 87.1MMT to 92MMT in 2023, this will be the second largest crop on record if realised.
Statistics Canada has forecast wheat production to fall by 14.5% in 2023 compared with 2022, this largely due to a reduction in the spring wheat crop.
Canadian oilseed rape production is also forecast to fall 6.1% to 17.6MMT by Statistics Canada.
French wheat quality remains good with 91% of samples meeting specifications above the 5-year average of 87% according to AgriMer