Grain Market Update 4th May
Market Prices and News
Global grain markets have seen further declines this week; nearby CBOT wheat futures reached a 22-month low of $6.14/bu (July 2021) on Monday 1st May (Sovecon).
New crop MATIF wheat Dec 23 futures closed on Friday 28th April at €240.50/t, down €7.25/t on the week. Further declines have taken place this week, with the same contract closing at €234.50/t on Tuesday May 2nd.
Russian wheat prices are weighing heavily on global markets, Russian wheat was the most competitive in the recent Egyptian GASC tender at between $250-260/t FOB.
Talks on the U.N brokered Black Sea Initiative are due to take place between all parties on May 3rd, Russia has signalled to date that it will not agree to renew on May 18th if sanctions on its own grain and fertiliser exports are not eased.
Last week, Tirlan offered €254/t for dried wheat and €244/t for dried barley, no price has been circulated so far this week.
Paris rapeseed Nov-23 closed at €441.25/t on Wednesday. Good progress in soybean planting in the USA and the very large Brazilian crop continue to exert pressure on global oilseed markets (AHDB).
FOB Creil malting barley closed at €268/t on Wednesday of last week, the average for the first three weeks on this contract portion is now €266/t.
|Commodity||Spot Dried €/T||September 23 Green³ €/T||Nov/Dec 2023 Dried €/T|
|IRL Feed Wheat¹||216||254|
|IRL Feed Barley¹||206||244|
|Paris MATIF Wheat²||234||–||231.25|
|Paris Oilseed Rape²||–||–||438.50|
² Source: Euronext correct as of 27.04.23
³ Source: Tirlan 27.04.23
Global Grain Supply and Demand
USDA published its weekly crop report on Monday May 1st, wheat rated in good – excellent condition increased to 28%. Further rainfall is expected in Kansas and Oklahoma this week, which are key US wheat producers.
The EU Commission MARS report was published on Monday April 24th, total EU cereal output for harvest 2023 is now forecast at 283MMT, up 1.4% on the 5-year average.
Statistics Canada published figures for rapeseed planting, an estimated 8.7m hectares are due to be planted in 2023, up 1% on 2022.
For the EU-27, Strategie Grains has estimated that rapeseed production will be 20MMT up 500k tonnes on last month’s forecast.