Nearby Paris MATIF wheat futures have slipped to lows of €271/t on Wednesday March 1st. New crop futures on this index are trading marginally higher than spot old crop values in recent days.
This week Tirlan offered €273/t for dried wheat Nov-23 and €263/t on the same basis for dried barley.
May-23 Chicago wheat futures dropped to $260.25/t on Monday February 27th , the lowest price for this contract since September 2021 (AHDB).
According to market analysts, the main factor driving European wheat prices down is market optimism over the renewal of the Black Sea Corridor in March and rain falling across wheatbelt of North America.
Russian wheat continues to be cheaper on global markets and is outcompeting other exporting nations on price.
Global Grain Supply and Demand
The USDA have released area estimates for wheat and maize in the 2023/2024 marketing year, both areas are expected to increase and 8 and 3% year on year respectively.
Sovecon a market analyst has put Russian wheat production for 2023/24 at 85.3 million tonnes, a decrease on the 92MMT wheat crop the USDA estimated was produced in 20233/23.
Ukraine’s economic ministry has estimated the total grain harvest for 2023/24 will fall to 49.5MMT down from 54MMTtotal output produced in 2022/23 (Reuters)
|Commodity||March/May 2023 Dried €/T||November 2023 Dried €/T|
|IRL Feed Wheat¹||280||273|
|IRL Feed Barley¹||270||263|
|Paris MATIF Wheat²||271||273.25|
|Paris Oilseed Rape²||530||532|
|Maize ex. Port¹||300-305||N/A|
² Source: Euronext correct as of 01.03.23