Grain Market Update 13th Sept
The rapid national harvest pace of August shows no signs of abating in September with many spring bean crops now cut across the country. This is 10 – 14 days earlier than would normally be expected. Yield reports for beans are described as only average and disappointing in some instances with most spring beans yielding between 2-2.4t/ac. Quality looks good with low moistures of 17-19% reported.
The cereal harvest has been completed nationwide with satisfactory yields and quality all round. There has been an absence of any grain price quotes for the past 10 days with the major buyers due to unveil prices in the last week of September. Reports nationally indicate that many merchants are likely to pay €200-205/t for green barley and €215/t for green wheat. The differential between wheat and barley has narrowed compared with the previous marketing year. Quotes for native, dry wheat into November are reported as €240-243/t and €230/t for barley.
Irish Native / Import Dried Feed Prices 10/09/2021
|Spot €/t||Nov 2021 €/t||Nov 2022 €/t|
|Dried Feed Wheat||240-245||240-243||210-215|
|Dried Feed Barley||230||230||200|
|FOB Creil Malting Barley||279||240||N/A|
Wheat prices on the futures markets in London and Paris have now cooled off in the past week. The LIFFE feed wheat market has now seen 9 consecutive days of price drops to £182 at the time of writing. The MATIF market has seen more significant drops with the September price now at nearly €35/t less than highs in August. With widescale problems with low kph in milling wheat across Europe, the market seems to have comprised and is now willing to accept milling wheat of lower specification. Other global factors which pushed wheat markets down include near record production forecasts for the Australian wheat crop for the 2nd consecutive year running, favourable weather in Argentina and better than expected stock levels in Canada. According to analyst SovEcon, yields for the Siberian wheat crop in Russia are better than expected also.
One market which is bucking the trend is FOB Creil spring malting barley which continues to strengthen into September. Spot prices over the past two weeks in September have closed between €270-€279/t. As with wheat, the French crop appears to be troubled with small grain size and high screenings and this has driven prices upwards. The average price for Boortmalt suppliers on the FOB Creil contract is now €233.64 with two more weeks to go.
The maize market continues to show a bearish outlook with bigger production now expected in the US Midwest. A USDA report also appeared to suggest that the acres planted to corn and soybeans were higher than previous estimates which added further pressure to maize futures. In August, spot maize prices traded almost €30-40/t above wheat, this differential is now in danger of being reversed with yields likely higher than initially forecast. The harvest of maize has now commenced in drier more western areas of the US Midwest. On Friday last, the USDA estimated the national maize yield to be 176 bushels/ac compared to 172 bus/ac in 2020.
Prices for oilseed rape remain at record high levels with dried oilseed rape in Ireland is typically trading at €515-525/t. In Europe, less than ideal weather conditions and a failure to secure derogations for neo-nicotinoid seed dressings is likely to reduce the area planted in Poland, whilst German farmers have also struggled to get crops planted with the later harvest. Globally, Canada is a very significant producer and a severe drought during 2021 has been the predominant driver of high rapeseed prices but a more typical harvest in 2022 will likely see prices return to a more normal level.
The area of winter oilseed rape planted in Ireland appears to be significantly increased with some growers sowing an area of the crop for the very first time. Forward offers for crop 2022 remain very attractive with €470-475 available widely.
t remains to seen what view the Irish grain trade will take in light of more bearish global markets over the coming weeks as prices for harvest 2021 are finalised. From a feedstuff perspective, maize is likely to be more competitively priced versus wheat and barley than previously anticipated. However, stocks of feed barley are also likely to be tighter than anticipated and with import prices remaining high, this will leave Irish green barley prices in a very favourable position for 2021.