Grain Market Update 26th Feb
Feed demand remains strong as the recent wet conditions have ensured no early turn out to grass.
With the rise in the price of imported feedstuffs, this has created strong demand for scarce local supplies.
In the past month, feed barley has jumped by €15/t, but it remains considerably below the price of imported maize.
Since 2016, Ireland has doubled its import of third country maize, with Brazil becoming the main country of choice for Irish supply. For the last six months of 2020 alone, Ireland imported almost 700,000 tonnes of maize.
Ironically, the dependence on these imports with lower environmental and sustainability standards, has not only undermined the Irish tillage sector, but is now contributing to a spike in feed prices as less quantities of native grain are now available.
The same applies to protein crops and is another salutary lesson on the need for expanding our local tillage area.
Forward green prices for barley harvest 2021 have improved to a minimum of €165/t for barley and €175 for wheat. These prices are €20 – €25/t above this time last year. In relation to maize and soymeal, forward prices for next Autumn have increased considerably with the gap between spot and new harvest prices narrowing to €40/t for both. This is positive for local grains as this time last year November maize could be bought for €178/t as opposed to €207/t today.
November rapeseed prices are also positive at €400/t up €40 on last year.
The ‘China’ effect continues to have a positive impact on the FOB Creil malting barley price, with the July 2021 price now trading at €215/t. Demand for brewing will be reduced in Ireland this year due to COVID-19, However, demand for distilling is unaffected and will increase slightly.
Irish Native / Import Dried Feed Prices 25/02/2021
|Spot €/t||Nov 2021 €/t|
|FOB Creil Malting Barley||215|
Matif wheat front month prices spiked again to €240/t this week with the December price at €200/t Despite a further revision upwards in wheat supply, prices remain robust due to the demand side. Recent cold weather scares in the US and Russia have also been positive for the market.
Crops in Europe are reported to be doing well with much of the Spring planting now underway. With low wheat carryover stocks throughout the world, any further shocks on the supply side will certainly drive prices to new highs.
Delays in the soybean harvest in Brazil are certainly proving positive for the pricing of both soya a and corn. Reports indicate that corn planting in Brazil is seriously delayed with only 35-40% of the Safrinha crop planted as opposed to the yearly average of 65-70%.
With the US accounting for approximately a third of world soybean and corn exports, the decisions around the area and ratios of these crops planted next April and May, will have a big influence on markets. It is predicted that the area will increase, however, this may not be sufficient to satisfy demand and replenish reduced stock piles.