The first provisional DAFM BPS figures on the main cereal crop plantings indicate that they are similar to last year with only a 1% increase. As predicted the only real difference is a switch back to more Winter crops and an increase in the planting of oats which brings them back to the area of previous years.
The recent surge in the price of corn(maize) has lifted all boats with the forward harvest prices for green barley now just over €150/t while wheat is over €160/t. The FOB Creil malting barley (July 2019) price has improved from €185/t to €188/t over recent days. Some farmers report that there has been an increase in the interest for barley in store, as the spot price of maize is now significantly above barley for the first time in almost a year. If this price differential (which is the historic norm) remains or increases we will see barley buy its way back into feed rations by displacing the now more expensive maize.
Native/Import Dried Prices
|Jun – July2019
|New Crop 2019
|€200 – 202/t
|FOB Creil Malting Barley
|€188/t (July 2019)
The continuation of wet weather in the US continues to the drive the markets. Although the quality of US wheat could be affected by the prolonged wet period it is really the delay in the maize plantings which is driving the wheat market. Traders are balancing the positive outlook of crops in Europe and the Black sea area with the issues of dryness in Australia and Canada along with the quality issues which may arise in US wheat. The MATIF Sept 2019 had risen to €190/t however it gave up some of the gains yesterday to retreat to €183 however it is well off the €166/t low of two weeks ago.
The latest USDA estimates released last Tuesday indicate that only 58% of the maize crop is planted, a figure that is normally at 90% for this stage of the season. The US produces almost a third of the total maize production in the world and despite good crops being predicted in South America and Europe/Ukraine this will have a major impact on a market which was projected get 380mt’s from the US harvest. There is some dry weather expected in North-western areas of the US which may allow planting but with futures prices now at a 3year high and if farmers fail to plant the remaining crop in what is a very small window then prices will surge even higher.
The USDA also reported that only 29% of the soybean crop had been planted on Tuesday which is well below the average figure of 66%. Like corn this has caused prices to strengthen with soyabean meal in particular up over 12% in the past two weeks.