Grain Market Update 3rd May
Irish barley stocks remain high with the merchant trade looking at 60kt – 80kt on hand and a further 30kt – 40kt on farms. Many mills are sitting on unusually high stocks of by-products for the time of year. Mills had overbought in anticipation of the fodder crisis continuing into the spring. However, the good weather this spring facilitated an early turnout to grass which has reduced demand. Significant amounts of wheat are being offered to the trade over recent days from the North East / Dublin region, but this would be normal for this time of year.
The latest report from Eurostat indicates that 170,000 tonnes of maize were imported into Ireland during February mainly from Brazil, Canada and the Ukraine which has undermined the local barley market. Since last July 2018, over 1 million tonnes of non-EU maize have been imported which is already significantly above the 973,000 tonnes imported in the previous marketing year
The FOB Creil malting barley (July 2019) price has held steady at just above €190 which is contrast to other feed wheat and barley forward prices which have fallen in recent weeks.
Native/Import Dried Prices
|Spot 02/05/19||Jun – July 2019||New Crop 2019|
|Wheat||€200 – 202/t||€202 – 204/t||€180/t|
|Barley||€175 – 177/t||€180/t – 182/t||€165 – 167/t|
|FOB Creil Malting Barley||€191/t (July 2019)|
Wheat markets have declined by over 6% in the past 3 weeks due to the continuation of favourable crop reports from around the globe. The IGC has raised its forecast for world wheat production for the 2019/2020 season by 3million tonnes due to improved crop predictions from Russia, Ukraine and the US in particular. Recent rain in Spain and across Europe has helped with moisture stress however soil moisture levels are still low and water restrictions have already been put in place across some parts of Germany and elsewhere.
Maize markets had declined in tandem with wheat however they bounced by over 2% in the US this week due to continued delays in plantings of corn in the US Midwest. It is still not late for planting the crop, however, wet weather is forecast to continue for the next 10 days at least, so there will be little progress until then.
The delays in corn plantings has been negative for soybeans prices as US framers will plant more beans if it runs to late for the corn. This coupled with less Chinese demand due to swine fever and near record crops from Brazil has seen a major decline in futures prices in the past month. Meanwhile Strategic Grains has cut its EU forecast for the 2019 rapeseed crop to a 12-year low. There are also reports that the Canadians will reduce their rapeseed crop due to ongoing concerns about the reduction of exports to China due to a diplomatic dispute.