Grain price sentiment remains largely unchanged this week and prices remain similar to last week. The last three weeks have seen a downward trend over news on potential grain corridors out of Ukraine.
Paris MATIF wheat for September 22 closed yesterday (15th June) at €392.75/t.
Trading of old crop supplies in June is traditionally much lower and market attention is now firmly focused on new crop markets.
On Tuesday June 14th, Glanbia offered €310/t for green barley and €325/t for green wheat.
FOB Creil malting barley closed at €455/t this week, the rolling average stands at €436.20/t for Boortmalt suppliers.
|Spot Market||September 2022 Green €/T||Nov/Dec 2022 Dried €/T 1|
|IRL Feed Wheat||390-400||325||370-380|
|IRL Feed Barley||385||310||355-360|
|Paris MATIF Wheat||–||–||386|
|Paris Oilseed Rape||–||–||754|
|Maize ex. Port||365-370||–||365-370|
Global Grain Supply and Demand
The USDA world agricultural supply and demand estimates for June was published on Friday last week. New crop maize ending stocks for 2022/2023 were revised up by nearly 2% with record production still on track in Brazil and higher than expected maize planting in Ukraine.
Global wheat production was revised down by 1.4 million tonnes in the same USDA report
US maize planting is now 97% planted and has caught up well after much slower than average planting progress in May, attention now turns to crop emergence and ratings.
Russian wheat forecasts for 2022/23 are showing variability, USDA have estimated 81MMT but analyst Sovecon have forecast as high as 88.6MMT which would be a new record. How much of this crop will be exported is very uncertain.
French wheat crop conditions were rated at 66% good to excellent last week, the sixth, consecutive downgrade following a very dry, warm spring. Harvest of winter barley in France has commenced in some areas already so the effects of the drought on crop yields will become clearer shortly.
Paris oilseed rape prices dropped last week and have weakened further this week on news that restrictions on palm oil exports from Indonesia have been loosened further. Canadian rapeseed crop progress will be a driver of this market over the coming weeks and months.
Grain Committee & Policy News
The European Chemicals Agency (ECHA) has announced last week that there should be no change in the classification of glyphosate and that it is “not justified” to conclude that glyphosate is a carcinogen. The result from the European Food Safety Authority assessment is expected to be available in July 2023 rather than July 2022 as originally anticipated. This delay is due to the sheer volume of feedback received by the committee.
The National Grain Chairman held a meeting with officials from the Unfair Trading Practices (UTP) Section of DAFM. New UTP regulation will require payment for perishable agricultural products 30 days after delivery.
|Spot Price||% Change vs Last Week||% Change year on year|
|Dutch TTF Gas Futures €/MwH July 22||131.1||74%||870%|
|Brent Crude Aug 22($)||118.91||2%||177%|
Gas prices on the Dutch TTF futures increased very significantly (74%) on news that Russian gas provider Gazprom was restricting gas flows through the Nordstream 1 pipeline this week.
Oil prices remain must less volatile but still at very high price levels.