IFA Grain Update 26th January
IFA Grain Committee News
The IFA Grain Committee met with Minister Charlie McConalogue in Agriculture House in late December. The impact of CAP 2023-2027 on tillage farmer incomes was made clear to the Minister and his staff. The delegation urged the need for a specialist tillage scheme in addition to the successful straw chopping and protein aid schemes.
The IFA malting barley committee has also met with Boortmalt to review the 2021 harvest and discuss plans for 2022.
The term of the IFA National Grain Chairman Mark Browne expires in January 2022. Kieran McEvoy has been elected as the new grain chairman.
The reauthorisation of glyphosate in the EU will be the key policy decision affecting tillage farmers in Ireland in 2022. IFA are currently closely monitoring this issue at EU level.
Wheat markets have regained some ground this week on the back of Black Sea tensions. Markets remain uncertain about the situation in these two large wheat exporters (AHDB).
November ‘22 dried wheat futures are trading at circa €250/t.
On the 25th of January, Glanbia offered €205/t for green feed barley and €215 for green feed wheat.
Spot oilseed rape prices are extremely volatile for Paris rapeseed this is being driven by uncertainty in the supply of other oilseeds.
New crop oilseed rape is trading at €150/t less than spot markets for September and November 2022, compared with a 5 year average discount of €22/t (AHDB).
November ‘22 OSR futures have gained 8-10% month to month.
|Spot Price¹ €/t||% Change vs previous month||Glanbia Sept 2022 Green (€/t)||Nov/Dec 2022 Dried (€/t) ¹|
|IRL Feed Wheat||300 – 305||0%||210||245-250|
|IRL Feed Barley||295-300||0%||200||235-237|
|Oilseed Rape Paris²||727.25||+6%||–||595-600|
|Maize ex. Port||295||N/A||N/A||255|
Global Grain Supply and Demand
Globally, the supply of wheat for 2021/22 is complete with record harvests in Australia and Argentina, but global stocks-to-use remains tight according to AHDB market reports.
Global wheat production is forecast to rise according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) – US wheat plantings are 2.2% higher for 2022.
USA maize plantings are forecast to be 3% higher in 2022.
New crop wheat futures will be influenced by Brazilian maize supply, a record Safrinha crop is expected to be harvested in 2022.
Brazilian soy bean production revised down by CONAB (Brazil Statistics Agency) + USDA.
EU Rapeseed are forecast to be up 7% (Strategie Grains).
|WASDE Global Stocks + Supply 21/22³||Million Metric Tonnes||Monthly Change (%)|
|World wheat supply||778.6||+0.7%|
|Wheat ending stocks||280||+1.8%|
|World Corn Supply||1206.96||-1.77%|
|World Soybean Meal||257.61||-1.68%|
Fertiliser &Energy Markets
Gas Futures on the Dutch TFF futures index have fallen sharply in recent weeks due to increased supply from the USA.
Natural gas is a key raw material for the production of nitrogen fertilisers
Nitrogen fertiliser remains very expensive due to gas prices in late autumn and early winter when production for the spring restarted and also a number of European fertiliser plants still remain shut.
|Spot Price||% Change vs Dec ‘21||% Change year on year|
|Dutch TTF Gas Futures €/MwH||91.30||-9%||+207%|
|Brent Crude Oil ($/barrel)||90.29||+18%||+50%|