Global total grains production is expected to show a second consecutive annual decline in 2018/19, to 2,063m t, down 1% year on year. Led by reduced harvests in Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries, the global wheat harvest is seen falling (-42m t) for the first time in six years, while barley output could be the lowest since 2012/13.
After a drop in the previous year, the maize crop is predicted to rebound, although this is mainly on potential improvements in South America where planting for 2018/19 is only just beginning.
A projected 22m t year on year increase in grains consumption includes gains for food, feed and industrial uses, taking world total usage to an all-time high of 2,129m. Because of tighter supplies, use of wheat (-1m t) and barley (-4m) are seen falling, likely transferring some demand to maize (+28m), particularly in the livestock sector.
(Source: International Grains Council, Grain Market Report GMR 491 23rd August 2018)
Total Grains Supply & Demand Summary – figures in millions of tonnes (m t)